Last week, Jets QB Mark Sanchez could only muster 166 yards against the Patriots’ 32nd ranked pass defense, dead last in the NFL. This week he gets a shot at the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense when the Miami Dolphins head into NY for a Monday Night Football matchup that evokes memories of wild shootouts in the 1980′s, none more so than September 21, 1986, during Week 3 of the season. Please do check that one out and tell me why this isn’t the greatest sport there is.
My line of giving Miami a shade over a touchdown start is how I see matters, considering that the Dolphins are starting Matt Moore at QB now that Chad Henne is done for the season and also because the rabid New York crowd reserve a special kind of reception for the Dolphins (and now the Patriots). A crowd shouldn’t normally affect a spread that much, if truth be told, but in addition to the famed X’s and O’s that are the fundamentals to any coaching philosophy in this sit-me-down-for-ten-hours-on-a-Sunday, dangerously addictive NFL world, this sport is built around intangibles and I do love a good intangible!
There are a couple of significant injuries to mull over here, too. The Jets look to welcome back center Nick Mangold and while that may not strike much of a chord, Sanchez will be delighted at this development as it’s immeasurable how much he’s missed his presence in front of him when the ball’s being snapped; the simple truth is that Sanchez trusts him implicitly. Mangold is listed as questionable (50-50 in NFL terms), but Head Coach Rex Ryan has publicly stated that he expects him to play.
For the Dolphins, rookie running back Daniel Thomas is also questionable, but a lot less certain to suit up than Mangold, which makes me think that he won’t play. Should that be the case, this line could feasibly be pushed to 8.5 as I don’t see how Miami can move the ball on the ground without him and that’s despite the Jets giving up 134 rushing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the league. In lieu of Thomas, Moore would be handing the ball off to Reggie Bush and his 3 yards per carry average. Thomas is averaging 4.9 yards, which is in a different league.
I find this one difficult to call and it’s based purely upon Thomas’s availability. OK, here’s what I’ll do and this is the first time I’ve done this this season. Should Thomas play any part, I take the Dolphins and the points; should he not, I take the Jets to cover the spread. I’ll have my eye firmly on the build up to this one as it’s going to be a game time decision.
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